May 27, 2020

Part 5 - Decision Making Models

      All people need to make decisions from time to time. Given limited time in formulating policies and addressing public problems, public administrators must enjoy a certain degree of discretion in planning, revising and implementing public policies. In other words, they must engage in decision-making (Gianakis, 2004). Over the years, many scholars tried to devise decision-making models to account for the policy making process with the following considerations:

1. Rationality
      Since the development of public administration, scholars have assumed that people make decisions rationally. By rationality, Herbert A. Simon (1976) means “a style of behavior that is appropriate to the achievement of given goals, within the limits imposed by given conditions and constraints.” Rationality requires that the person making the decision should be aware of the alternative courses of action that can be used to achieve the objectives.

2. Facts
      According to Gortner (2001), facts are the information and knowledge that the public administrators possess in formulating policies. Facts are important in deciding the appropriate means to take to achieve higher ends. They may not be readily known by administrators but need to be acquired through extensive research and analysis. Rationality is defined in terms of appropriateness for the accomplishment of specific goals.

3. Values
      Values are internal perceptions on the desirability and priority of one’s actions and choices. (Van Wart, 2004) Besides setting goals for their plans, decision-makers make priorities, interpret facts and act upon objective situations according to their values. Besides balancing conflicting values within an individual, government has to weigh and balance values embodied in different departments (Van Wart, 1996, 1998).

4. Means
      Means are the instrument, tools or techniques to satisfy a higher end (Simon, 1997). Although they are used to achieve a higher end, they are not neutral in value. When policy makers devise their strategies, they choose their means according to their internal values and consequences.

5. Ends
      Ends are the intermediate goals to a more final objective. In a means-end hierarchy, the concept of means and ends is relative. An action can be a mean relative to the higher levels in the hierarchy but an end relative to the lower levels. However, in this hierarchy, an action is more value-based when moving upwards in the hierarchy but more fact-based when moving downwards.

There are several types of decision making model:

1. Economic Rationality or Classical Model

This model comes from the classical economist models, in which the decision-maker is perfectly and completely rational in every way. In this, following conditions are assumed.
  • The decision will be completely rational in means ends sense.
  • There is a complete and consistent system of preferences that allows a choice among alternatives.
  • There is a complete awareness of all the possible alternatives
  • Probability calculations are neither frightening nor mysterious
  • There are no limits to the complexity of computations that can be performed to determine the best alternatives
2. Administrative Model

      In the foundation of the administrative model of decision making lies the belief that decision makers often settle for a less than ideal solution because of time and motivation shortages. Instead of seeking the best solution that maximizes the value of the decision, the decision maker accepts the first available 'good enough' alternative producing a value above the minimally acceptable. The concept of settling for a less than perfect solution is called satisficing.

        Because of the limited rationality of the decision maker, the model is also known as the bounded rationality model. The limited rationality entails that the decision maker has a limited number of criteria and considers a limited number of alternatives. The degree to which the choice will be limited will depend upon the values and skills of the decision maker. This model is based on ideas first expressed by Herbert Simon. He called the decision maker with limited rationality an “Administrative Man” and opposed him to a perfect “Economic Man”, who is takes into consideration all possible criteria and evaluates all possible alternatives.

3. Political Model

In contrast to the rational model, players in the political model (often referred to as incrementalists) do not focus on a single issue but on many intraorganizational problems that reflect their personal goals. In contrast to the administrative model, the political model does not assume that decisions result from applying existing standard operating procedures, programs, and routines. Decisions result from bargaining among coalitions. Unlike in the previous models, power is decentralized. This concept of decision making as a political process emphasizes the natural multiplicity of goals, values, and interests in a complex environment. The political model views decision making as a process of conflict resolution and consensus building and decisions as products of compromise. The old adage, “Scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours,” is the dominant decision-making strategy.

When a problem requires a change in policy, the political model predicts that a manager will consider a few alternatives, all of them similar to existing policy. This perspective points out that decisions tend to be incremental -- that managers make small changes in response to immediate pressures instead of working out a clear set of plans and a comprehensive program. This incrementalist approach can be seen as the simplest or most extreme form of satisficing.

The incremental approach of the political model allows managers to reduce the time spent on the information search and problem definition stages. Incremental decision making is geared to address shortcomings in present policy rather than consider a superior, but novel, course of action. 

In the political model, the stakeholders have different perception, priorities, and solutions. Because stakeholders have the power to veto some proposals, no policy that harms a powerful stakeholder is likely to triumph even if it is objectively optimal.

Next topic...
Part 6 - Decision Making Styles

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